Real Madrid’s chances of making the Champions League final are surprising after advancing past Atletico Madrid.
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The UEFA Champions League rolls on as the round of 16 wrapped up Wednesday.
Real Madrid survived against Atletico Madrid in a thrilling derby decided by a penalty shootout. Julian Alvarez’s disallowed penalty and Marcos Llorente’s miss were the deciding factors in Los Blanocs advancing. On the other side of the bracket, Paris Saint-Germain eliminated Liverpool making a case for themselves to go all the way and lift their first European trophy. The French side also advanced by winning a penalty shootout.
The other big sides left in the competition, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Inter Milan, handled business to qualify for the final eight.
Opta’s supercomputer ran predictions for the Champions League ahead of the quarterfinals in April.
UEFA Champions League Semifinals Qualification Odds
|
Team |
Odds (percentage) |
|---|---|
|
Barcelona |
80% |
|
Paris Saint-Germain |
72.2% |
|
Arsenal |
52.8% |
|
Inter Milan |
57.3% |
|
Real Madrid |
47.2% |
|
Bayern Munich |
42.7% |
|
Aston Villa |
27.9% |
|
Borussia Dortmund |
20% |
Barcelona have the best odds of qualifying for the semifinals giving their opponent, Borussia Dortmund, just a 20 percent chance of advancing. Shockingly, Arsenal are slightly favored to advance over Real Madrid.
UEFA Champions League Final Qualification Odds
|
Team |
Odds (percentage) |
|---|---|
|
Barcelona |
41.5% |
|
PSG |
36% |
|
Arsenal |
30.3% |
|
Inter Milan |
32.7% |
|
Real Madrid |
26% |
|
Bayern Munich |
21.3% |
|
Aston Villa |
7.7% |
|
Borussia Dortmund |
4.5% |
If Barcelona do advance to the semifinals, they are the favorite to once again advance to the final. After Barcelona, PSG have the next best odds of advancing setting up a potential PSG/Barcelona final.
UEFA Champions League Winner Odds
|
Team |
Odds (percentage) |
|---|---|
|
Barcelona |
20.4% |
|
PSG |
19.3% |
|
Arsenal |
16.8% |
|
Inter Milan |
16.4% |
|
Real Madrid |
13.6% |
|
Bayern Munich |
9.7% |
|
Aston Villa |
2.8% |
|
Borussia Dortmund |
1% |
As of now, Barcelona are favored to win the competition. No surprise given their league form and how strong they’ve looked in the Champions League. They finished second in the league phase to Liverpool and dispatched Benfica with ease despite playing one leg with 10 men.
Given Real Madrid’s history in the competition and their willingness to always find a way in the end, it’s surprising to see Los Blancos as just the fifth favorite to win the tournament this year. Though, they do project to have arguably the toughest road to the final given they face Arsenal, likely PSG and then possibly Barcelona.
UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Games
- Arsenal vs. Real Madrid
- Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa
- Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund
- Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan
